Expectation-Based Probabilistic Naive Approach for Forecasting Involving Optimized Parameter Estimation.

This paper presents a forecasting technique based on the principle of naïve approach imposed in a probabilistic sense, thus allowing to express the prediction as the statistical expectation of known observations with a weight involving an unknown parameter. This parameter is learnt from the given data through minimization of error. The theoretical foundation is laid out, and the resulting algorithm is concisely summarized. Finally, the technique is validated on several test functions (and compared with ARIMA and Holt-Winters), special sequences and real-life covid-19 data. Favorable results are obtained in every case, and important insight about the functioning of the technique is gained.

Needle-free injection system delivery of ZyCoV-D DNA vaccine demonstrated improved immunogenicity and protective efficacy in rhesus macaques against SARS-CoV-2.

The apprehension of needles related to injection site pain, risk of transmitting bloodborne pathogens, and effective mass immunization have led to the development of a needle-free injection system (NFIS). Here, we evaluated the efficacy of the NFIS and needle injection system (NIS) for the delivery and immunogenicity of DNA vaccine candidate ZyCoV-D in rhesus macaques against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Briefly, 20 rhesus macaques were divided into 5 groups (4 animals each), that is, I (1 mg dose by NIS), II (2 mg dose by NIS), III (1 mg dose by NFIS), IV (2 mg dose by NFIS) and V (phosphate-buffer saline [PBS]). The macaques were immunized with the vaccine candidates/PBS intradermally on Days 0, 28, and 56. Subsequently, the animals were challenged with live SARS-CoV-2 after 15 weeks of the first immunization. Blood, nasal swab, throat swab, and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid specimens were collected on 0, 1, 3, 5, and 7 days post infection from each animal to determine immune response and viral clearance. Among all the five groups, 2 mg dose by NFIS elicited significant titers of IgG and neutralizing antibody after immunization with enhancement in their titers postvirus challenge. Besides this, it also induced increased lymphocyte proliferation and cytokine response. The minimal viral load post-SARS-CoV-2 challenge and significant immune response in the immunized animals demonstrated the efficiency of NFIS in delivering 2 mg ZyCoV-D vaccine candidate.

Protective efficacy of COVAXIN® against Delta and Omicron variants in hamster model.

The immunity acquired after natural infection or vaccinations against SARS-CoV-2 tend to wane with time. Here, we compared the protective efficacy of COVAXIN® following two- and three-dose immunizations against the Delta variant and also studied the efficacy of COVAXIN® against Omicron variants in a Syrian hamster model. Despite the comparable neutralizing antibody response against the homologous vaccine strain in both the two-dose and three-dose immunized groups, considerable reduction in the lung disease severity was observed in the 3 dose immunized group after Delta variant challenge. In the challenge study using the Omicron variants, i.e., BA.1.1 and BA.2, lesser virus shedding, lung viral load and lung disease severity were observed in the immunized groups. The present study shows that administration of COVAXIN® booster dose will enhance the vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant infection and give protection against the BA.1.1 and BA.2 variants.

Pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron (R346K) variant in Syrian hamsters and its cross-neutralization with different variants of concern.

BACKGROUND: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant is rampantly spreading across the globe. We assessed the pathogenicity and immune response generated by BA.1.1 sub-lineage of SARS-CoV-2 [Omicron (R346K) variant] in 5 to 6-week old Syrian hamsters and compared the observations with that of Delta variant infection. METHODS: Virus shedding, organ viral load, lung disease and immune response generated in hamsters were sequentially assessed. FINDINGS: The disease characteristics of the Omicron (R346K) variant were found to be similar to that of the Delta variant infection in hamsters like viral replication in the respiratory tract and interstitial pneumonia. The Omicron (R346K) infected hamsters demonstrated lesser body weight reduction and viral RNA load in the throat swab and nasal wash samples in comparison to the Delta variant infection. The viral load in the lungs and nasal turbinate samples and the lung disease severity of the Omicron (R346K) infected hamsters were found comparable with that of the Delta variant infected hamsters. Neutralizing antibody response against Omicron (R346K) variant was detected from day 5 and the cross-neutralization titre of the sera against other variants showed severe reduction ie., 7 fold reduction against Alpha and no titers against B.1, Beta and Delta. INTERPRETATION: This preliminary data shows that Omicron (R346K) variant infection can produce moderate to severe lung disease similar to that of the Delta variant and the neutralizing antibodies produced in response to Omicron (R346K) variant infection shows poor neutralizing ability against other co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants like Delta which necessitates caution as it may lead to increased cases of reinfection. FUNDING: This study was supported by Indian Council of Medical Research as an intramural grant (COVID-19) to ICMR-National Institute of Virology, Pune.

Nipah Virus Outbreak in Kerala State, India Amidst of COVID-19 Pandemic.

We report here a Nipah virus (NiV) outbreak in Kozhikode district of Kerala state, India, which had caused fatal encephalitis in a 12-year-old boy and the outbreak response, which led to the successful containment of the disease and the related investigations. Quantitative real-time reverse transcription (RT)-PCR, ELISA-based antibody detection, and whole genome sequencing (WGS) were performed to confirm the NiV infection. Contacts of the index case were traced and isolated based on risk categorization. Bats from the areas near the epicenter of the outbreak were sampled for throat swabs, rectal swabs, and blood samples for NiV screening by real-time RT-PCR and anti-NiV bat immunoglobulin G (IgG) ELISA. A plaque reduction neutralization test was performed for the detection of neutralizing antibodies. Nipah viral RNA could be detected from blood, bronchial wash, endotracheal (ET) secretion, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and anti-NiV immunoglobulin M (IgM) antibodies from the serum sample of the index case. Rapid establishment of an onsite NiV diagnostic facility and contact tracing helped in quick containment of the outbreak. NiV sequences retrieved from the clinical specimen of the index case formed a sub-cluster with the earlier reported Nipah I genotype sequences from India with more than 95% similarity. Anti-NiV IgG positivity could be detected in 21% of Pteropus medius (P. medius) and 37.73% of Rousettus leschenaultia (R. leschenaultia). Neutralizing antibodies against NiV could be detected in P. medius. Stringent surveillance and awareness campaigns need to be implemented in the area to reduce human-bat interactions and minimize spillover events, which can lead to sporadic outbreaks of NiV.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate, BBV152 in rhesus macaques.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a global health crisis that poses a great challenge to the public health system of affected countries. Safe and effective vaccines are needed to overcome this crisis. Here, we develop and assess the protective efficacy and immunogenicity of an inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine in rhesus macaques. Twenty macaques were divided into four groups of five animals each. One group was administered a placebo, while three groups were immunized with three different vaccine candidates of BBV152 at 0 and 14 days. All the macaques were challenged with SARS-CoV-2 fourteen days after the second dose. The protective response was observed with increasing SARS-CoV-2 specific IgG and neutralizing antibody titers from 3rd-week post-immunization. Viral clearance was observed from bronchoalveolar lavage fluid, nasal swab, throat swab and lung tissues at 7 days post-infection in the vaccinated groups. No evidence of pneumonia was observed by histopathological examination in vaccinated groups, unlike the placebo group which exhibited interstitial pneumonia and localization of viral antigen in the alveolar epithelium and macrophages by immunohistochemistry. This vaccine candidate BBV152 has completed Phase I/II (NCT04471519) clinical trials in India and is presently in phase III, data of this study substantiates the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of the vaccine candidates.

Immunogenicity and protective efficacy of BBV152, whole virion inactivated SARS- CoV-2 vaccine candidates in the Syrian hamster model.

The availability of a safe and effective vaccine would be the eventual measure to deal with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) threat. Here, we have assessed the immunogenicity and protective efficacy of inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidates BBV152A, BBV152B, and BBV152C in Syrian hamsters. Three dose vaccination regimes with vaccine candidates induced significant titers of SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG and neutralizing antibodies. BBV152A and BBV152B vaccine candidates remarkably generated a quick and robust immune response. Post-SARS-CoV-2 infection, vaccinated hamsters did not show any histopathological changes in the lungs. The protection of the hamster was evident by the rapid clearance of the virus from lower respiratory tract, reduced virus load in upper respiratory tract, absence of lung pathology, and robust humoral immune response. These findings confirm the immunogenic potential of the vaccine candidates and further protection of hamsters challenged with SARS-CoV-2. Of the three candidates, BBV152A showed the better response.

Detection of coronaviruses in Pteropus & Rousettus species of bats from different States of India.

Background & objectives: Bats are considered to be the natural reservoir for many viruses, of which some are potential human pathogens. In India, an association of Pteropus medius bats with the Nipah virus was reported in the past. It is suspected that the recently emerged severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) also has its association with bats. To assess the presence of CoVs in bats, we performed identification and characterization of bat CoV (BtCoV) in P. medius and Rousettus species from representative States in India, collected during 2018 and 2019. Methods: Representative rectal swab (RS) and throat swab specimens of Pteropus and Rousettus spp. bats were screened for CoVs using a pan-CoV reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) targeting the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp) gene. A single-step RT-PCR was performed on the RNA extracted from the bat specimens. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) was performed on a few representative bat specimens that were tested positive. Phylogenetic analysis was carried out on the partial sequences of RdRp gene sequences retrieved from both the bat species and complete viral genomes recovered from Rousettus spp. Results: Bat samples from the seven States were screened, and the RS specimens of eight Rousettus spp. and 21 Pteropus spp. were found positive for CoV RdRp gene. Among these, by Sanger sequencing, partial RdRp sequences could be retrieved from three Rousettus and eight Pteropus bat specimens. Phylogenetic analysis of the partial RdRp region demonstrated distinct subclustering of the BtCoV sequences retrieved from these Rousettus and Pteropus spp. bats. NGS led to the recovery of four sequences covering approximately 94.3 per cent of the whole genome of the BtCoVs from Rousettus bats. Three BtCoV sequences had 93.69 per cent identity to CoV BtRt-BetaCoV/GX2018. The fourth BtCoV sequence was 96.8 per cent identical to BtCoV HKU9-1. Interpretation & conclusions: This study was a step towards understanding the CoV circulation in Indian bats. Detection of potentially pathogenic CoVs in Indian bats stresses the need for enhanced screening for novel viruses in them. One Health approach with collaborative activities by the animal health and human health sectors in these surveillance activities shall be of use to public health. This would help in the development of diagnostic assays for novel viruses with outbreak potential and be useful in disease interventions. Proactive surveillance remains crucial for identifying the emerging novel viruses with epidemic potential and measures for risk mitigation.